Friday, February 25, 2011

Middle East Uprisings - A Double-edged Sword?

For now I am remaining reserved as to the significant outcome of this momentous event in Egypt and the uprising it has sparked in various other Arab dictatorships throughout the Middle East.

While I am very happy for the every-man in Egypt, Libya, Iran, Jordan, Bahrain and Yemen I have to wonder if this could end up being a double-edged sword for the region instead of the hoped for insurgence of democracy Western nations would like to see.

Since 1973 there has been relative calm in the Middle East. I use the term relative because this region has never known what might be termed a real calm....EVER! However, since the failure of Egypt and several other Arab countries to destroy Israel "once and for all" during the infamous Yom Kippur War, and after the wisdom of Anwar Sadat to take up the banner of compromise with then Israeli leader Menachem Begin, the Camp David peace accord was signed and has been held to for nearly 33 years. Helping to keep that peace afloat has been the United State's pouring of billions of dollars into the region to both Egypt and Israel, as well as Jordan and Saudia Arabia. This, as well as the knowledge from seasoned leaders who have tried and failed on many occasions to wipe Israel off the map, have led to this nearly 4 decades of relative calm. Now that may all be coming to an end with the overthrow and fall of these seasoned leaders, horrific dictators though they may be.

There is a bigger picture here that many may be failing to see. As much as the free world may loathe the likes of a Gaddafi, Mubarak, Abdullah, Khamenei or Aziz, they have maintained a kind of status quo in the region. It is true that they have been the cause of much suffering, especially among their own peoples, and each of these terrible individuals have fostered terrorists groups that have been responsible for reprehensible activity ranging from self-inflicted martyr bombing to a scale as large as that of 9/11. However, these same dictators, under pressure from the United States, and the U.N. at large have been responsible for keeping this entire world from becoming entangled in a third world war that would lead to the end of civilization as we know it. It has been a sort of trade-off that the Big Four (The United States, Russia, China and European Union) have been willing to accept in place of the greater nightmare - a Middle East toe to toe in a nuclear conflagration.

In 1973 there were two nations on this planet with nuclear capability, the United States and The Soviet Union. These two superpowers were locked into a defensive posture that guaranteed the non-use of their destructive arsenal and the world stayed on that razors edge until the wall came down. Today the topology is quite different and one that is getting harder and harder for the Big Four to keep under control. The U.S. and Russia no longer have the nuclear market cornered. They now share that stage with far less stable countries like Pakistan, India, Israel and soon to be aboard are the extremely unstable North Korea and Iran. With Mubarak gone the Egyptian/Israeli peace accord may be shelved depending on who or what faction becomes the new leaders of that ancient country. What may happen in Libya, Jordan, Yemen, Bahrain and Iran is anybody's guess at this point. The whole world is in a wait-and-see posture. However, to me it looks like the chess pieces are beginning to line-up for an end game that doesn't bode well for the human race.

I hope I am wrong and would love for upcoming events to unfold in a way that makes me out to be a false political prophet, but here is how I see the not-to-distant future unfolding as a result of these current Arab dictators being overthrown. Each of these regiemes will be replaced by even more hardcore Islamic factions (such as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt) and even worse in Saudi Arabia (which we haven't heard much from, but will very soon). One by one the leaders and their political adherents of the last 50 years in these Arab countries will be toppled and replaced by Jihadist. The only exception will be Iran who will continue on its current hardliner road and take up the lead, a lead once held and controlled by Egypt. This new alliance of Arab nations, led by younger fire-breathing Islamic radicals, not having learned the lessons of their past forefathers, will once again get it into their heads that now is the time to remove the stain of the Jews from the region and bring about that real final solution, even if it means the destruction of the neighboring Palestinian peoples, who were after all nothing more than pawns in the hands of their radical agenda. With Israel gone, those Palestinians have served their purpose and are no longer needed in the equation.

Taking advantage of the unrest in the lower Middle East, Pakistan will initiate its own final solution against India. Within days the entire world will be thrown into a massive nuclear war it thought it never wanted but has been building toward since the 1950's.

God forbid I am right in my assessment of the current situation and one of its likely outcomes.

No comments: